After two hard-fought semifinal games, the first 12 team College Football Playoff is down to two teams—Notre Dame and Ohio State. One of these two teams will win a national championship—and all the glory that comes with it. The other will go home disappointed, with the knowledge that they were so close to the title but not close enough. The championship game will take place on Jan. 20 at 6:30 p.m.

Notre Dame looks to end a decades-long championship drought, with their last national title coming in 1988. Ohio State won their last championship more recently—in 2014, the inaugural year of the previous format of the playoff. 

Neither coach has won a national championship at their respective top programs where contention is an expectation, not a hope. Ryan Day and the Buckeyes look to end discontent in Columbus after losing to Michigan for the fourth consecutive year as favorites by over a touchdown. Meanwhile, Marcus Freeman, who was an All-Big Ten linebacker for the Buckeyes, is searching for a national title against his alma mater after losing to them in each of the past two seasons.

In the semifinals, both teams played tough opponents who kept the game close through all four quarters of play. Texas provided the blueprint for beating Ohio State by managing to hold their star freshman receiver, Jeremiah Smith, to only four yards while also cutting off their number two option, senior receiver Emeka Egbuka. Although Texas wasn’t able to finish the job due to a scoop and score from star senior defensive end, Jack Sawyer, they kept the game close until the last few minutes. Likewise, Notre Dame needed a last-minute field goal to prevent Penn State from taking the game to overtime. 

Ohio State is the favorite by over a touchdown as the hottest team in the country. In the first two rounds of the playoff, the Buckeyes blew out Tennessee and the number one seed, Oregon, by a combined 45 points. Notre Dame should not be counted out though due to their resilience. The Irish have overcome injuries all season and managed to come back and make the playoffs after a Week two loss to Northern Illinois, arguably the worst loss in the country this season. Expect Notre Dame to fight hard despite their underdog status. 

In order to win, Notre Dame’s secondary will need to step up and counteract Ohio State’s offensive star power. The Buckeyes have one of the strongest running back tandems in the country along with a trio of explosive receivers in Smith, Egbuka and Carnell Tate. If the Irish fail to stop Smith who is one of the best freshman receivers in history, it will be a hard path to victory for Notre Dame. Notre Dame’s secondary is strong though. In the win against Penn State, they only allowed 25 yards to wide receivers, forcing the Nittany Lions to rely on their running game. The Irish will likely need to win the turnover battle and continue their third-down success–going 11 of 17 on offense while allowing only 3 of 11 conversions on defense–from the win against Penn State. Notre Dame is the best team in the country in the “middle eight”– the last four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half. In their three playoff wins, they outscored opponents 54-10 in the middle eight minutes of the game.

The Buckeyes will need to play mistake-free football in order to beat Notre Dame. If Notre Dame wins the turnover battle, it will open an avenue for the Buckeyes to lose. This Ohio State team playing at their best is nearly impossible to beat. Their two losses came by a combined four points to Oregon, the number one team in the country for the most of the season, and Michigan, which Ryan Day is perplexingly unable to ever win against. This season, even including their two losses, they’ve averaged 35.8 points a game while holding opponents to an average of 12.2 points, meaning they outscore opponents by an average of over three touchdowns. Their defense is one of the best in college football and their offense is high-powered with stars at nearly every skill position. Texas did lay out the blueprint for how to beat this Ohio State team though–cut off their receiving options. Unfortunately for the Irish though, Texas’s secondary is exceptional and may very well be the best in college football. Notre Dame’s defense is solid but not extraordinary. If the Buckeyes limit mistakes and play their best, Notre Dame will have a very tough time beating them. 

Ohio State is the favorite for a reason but there is a potential road for an upset through Notre Dame limiting their receivers’ impact. The Buckeyes will most likely win, but expect the Irish to put up a fight.